It’s all pretty simple right now. As Minnesota Vikings quarterback Brett Favre said during his news conference yesterday, “Win and go on, lose and go home.”
Here’s the schedule for this week’s NFL Division finals – complete with point spreads.
The Cards will go into New Orleans this coming Saturday at 3:30. The Saints are 7-point favorities. Baltimore will play at Indianapolis, Saturday at 7:15. The Colts are 7-point favorites. On Sunday, Dallas will battle the Vikings at Noon. Minnesota is a 3-point favorite. While the Jets will go to San Diego, at 3:40. The Chargers are favored by 7 1/2.
As you will see below, we don’t necessarily buy into the odds.
That’s because there are problems with the spreads. For instance, there are a lot of people – the Vegas oddsmakers included — who don’t believe the Arizona Cardinals have a hope against the No. 1 seed in the NFC, the New Orleans Saints.
However, before writing off the Cards quite yet, consider this: against Green Bay last week, Kurt Warner threw more touchdown passes (5) than incompletions (4). If nothing else, that should tell you Warner is ready to make a game of it.
This is going to be a tremendous weekend. Let’s take a closer look…
Arizona Cardinals 11-6 at New Orleans Saints 13-3 ( -7 )
The Saints were already struggling before they rested their starters in the last couple of regular season games while the Cardinals are currently white-hot. Arizona has extensive playoff experience, and Warner, who is secretly one of the best postseason performers in NFL history, will not be rattled in the Superdome. Arizona is 6-1 against the spread as underdogs this year. Dr. Sports says that improves to 7-1.
Dr. Sports: Cardinals to win.
The Coach: New Orleans to win, but not cover.
Baltimore Ravens 10-7 at Indianapolis Colts 14-2 ( -7 )
What about the Colts? Not only did they sit their starters in Week 17; they also benched some of their main guys in Week 16. Without playing in a long time, I don’t think the Colts will be able to match the physicality of the Ravens. They were already weak versus the run, now, they’re being asked to stop Baltimore’s incredible ground attack after resting for three games. This is a Colts team that hasn’t won in a month. Oh, and here’s another fact; since 2005, seven teams have won a road playoff game in Round 1. Those seven teams are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in Round 2. Besides, the Football Gods must punish the Colts for rolling over and allowing the Jets into the playoffs.
Dr. Sports: Ravens to win.
The Coach: Ravens to win.
Dallas Cowboys 12-5 at Minnesota Vikings 12-4 (-3)
The Vikings end of season decline was caused by a three major factors; (1) E.J. Henderson’s absence. Ever since the middle linebacker suffered a season-ending injury, the Vikings have been woeful against the run. Before the Giants game, they surrendered four consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. This is not good news for Minnesota. Dallas is rushing the ball extremely well right now, as they’ve collected 377 rushing yards the past two weeks with their three-headed attack. The Cowboys will continue to run effectively, opening up play-action and misdirection opportunities for Tony Romo. (2) Brett Favre has had lousy pass protection. Between Weeks 8 and 12, Favre had been sacked only four times. However, Favre took a whopping 16 sacks the next four games. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie has really been struggling and looked completely helpless against Julius Peppers in Week 15 (Was McKinnie actually ON roller-skates that day?). We have no idea how McKinnie plans to keep DeMarcus Ware out of the backfield, especially with Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff applying pressure elsewhere. (3) Adrian Peterson has become a non-factor on the ground; he hasn’t rushed for more than 100 yards or averaged greater than 3.9 yards per carry since Week 10 against the Lions. The offensive line simply isn’t opening up any lanes for him, meanwhile, the Cowboys haven’t allowed a team to rush for 75 yards or more since Dec. 6.
All of the pressure is off Tony Romo now. Romo can go on to play at a high level without the threat of being scrutinized or living through another off season of being labelled as a choke artist. All that being said, The Dome has become a impossible place to win in, and that will be the deciding factor. This is not the Cowboys vs. the Vikings, it’s the Cowboys vs. the Dome.
Dr. Sports: Vikings to win and cover.
The Coach: Vikings to win and cover.
New York Jets 10-7 at San Diego Chargers 13-3 ( -7.5 )
The Jets, after clobbering Cincinnati two weeks in row, will find out the hard way that the Chargers are not anything like the Bengals. Unlike Carson Palmer, Phillip Rivers has more than one weapon to work with in Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd and Darren Sproles coming out of the backfield. As explosive as New York has looked in the last couple of games we believe the Chargers have something to prove after being ignored all season while attention was focused on the Colts and the Patriots.
Dr. Sports: Chargers to win and cover.
The Coach: Chargers to win and cover.
The Doc is 167-93 overall this season and 139-121 against the spread. The Coach is 163-97 straight up and 140-120 against the spread.
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