Say whatever you like, but this is the greatest moment of the sports calendar.
The National Football League, the greatest sports league on the planet, opens a new season tonight with the Washington Redskins at the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants (that’s still hard to write with a straight face), and I have just spent an entire morning answering questions like these…
“I have a choice. The Lions defence in Atlanta or the Jags defence in Tennessee? What do you think?”
I like the Lions defence, not because I particularly like the Lions defence per se, but because the Lions are favoured on the road for the first time in 23 games and only the fourth time this decade, so since hell has indeed frozen over again, I fear Vince Young more than I fear Matt Ryan.
“I have a choice between Matt Hasselbeck in Buffalo or Derek Anderson at home against Dallas. What do you think?”
I hate road openers (unless it’s Detroit in Atlanta), and I’m not sure Dallas is as good as everyone thinks. Derek Anderson will put up some points at home. I’m not sure Hasselbeck, against a pretty decent Buffalo defence playing in their own backyard, will do much of anything.
“I can either go with Arizona’s Anquan Boldin at San Francisco or the Jets’ Jerricho Cotchery in Miami. What do you think?”
Boldin is a great receiver, but Kurt Warner will look for Larry Fitzgerald first (wouldn’t you?). Boldin doesn’t even want to be in Aizona anymore. Brett Favre, meanwhile, seems to love Cotchery. Big target who runs Brett’s routes. Take Cotchery simply because he’s going to see the football.
Isn’t this fun? It’s football season. Real football season. Major league football season. And there is nothing more fun than lining up your fantasy team in Week 1.
So without further adieu, here are the 10 things you need to know heading into the NFL’s Kickoff Weekend:
1. The Lions and Vikings will battle for first in the NFC North. Barring catastrophic injuries to either team, they could both battle for the NFC crown. In fact, if you’re looking for a sleeper team in the NFC this season, look out for Detroit. they have an easy travel schedule (only 11,860 miles, making them 27th on a list led by Seattle at 34,766 miles) and their quarterback, Jon Kitna, is not as inept as his reputation would suggest. In fact, Kitna threw for 4,068 yards last year, his second with the Lions, becoming the first quarterback in club history with back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons. Kitna, who passed for a career-high 4,208 yards in 2006, ranks fourth in the NFL with 8,276 yards over the past two seasons. The 12-year veteran has thrown for 200 yards in 28 of his 32 starts with Detroit, the most 200-yard games in the NFL during that span. If the Lions get any defence at all, they could win a lot of football games.
2. The New York Giants won an NFL single-season record 10 consecutive road games in 2007, going 7-1 in the regular season. Considering they opened the year in London, England, they travelled 15,618 total miles. They won’t do that again and, as a result, won’t win the NFC East.
3. Watch out for teams with a “tandem backfield.” In 2007, 12 clubs boasted two running backs each with at least 500 rushing yards apiece, including five playoff teams: Dallas, Indy, the Jags, the Giants and Seattle. In fact, in Jacksonville, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor (1,202) combined for 1,970 yards and they went 12-4 with a first round playoff win.
4. RUN THE FOOTBALL!!! Last season, teams with a 100-yard rusher won 73.4 per cent of the time, compared to 56.9 per cent for teams with a 100-yard receiver and only 53.1 per cent for teams with a 300-yard passer. Run the football, win the game.
5. Oh yeah, and force turnovers. San Diego led in takeaway-to-giveaway ratio with a plus-24 takeaway differential and finished 11-5 (it didn’t hurt to have LaDainian Tomlinson either). 13-3 Indy was next at plus-18 while 16-0 New England was third at plus-16.
6. The New England Patriots went 16-0 last season. They also finished first in fourth-down conversions, going 11-for-11 and second in sacks with 47. The Super Bowl champion New York Giants led in sacks with 53, but both defensive ends Michael Strahan (rertirement) and Osi Umenyiora (knee injury) are gone.
7. Win in Week 1: According to the NFL’s media department, there are never any guarantees, “but there are trends and they start in Week 1.” History is clear that the best way for a team to start its drive towards a possible Super Bowl championship is to win its opening game. The 42 Super Bowl winners have a 34-7-1 record in the Kickoff Weekend games of their title seasons. However, as the Super Bowl XLII champion New York Giants proved, a loss on Kickoff Weekend can still lead to a championship season. According to the league, since 1978, when the NFL went to the 16-game schedule, and excluding the abbreviated season of 1982, teams that are victorious on Kickoff Weekend are more than twice as likely to reach the playoffs than losers of an opening game.
8. Once again, you have to like Pittsburgh. After all, QB Ben Roethlisberger is chasing his third divisional title in five years. Roethlisberger has a 39-16 (.709) regular-season record and was named to his first Pro Bowl after shattering the Steelers’ single-season record for passing touchdowns (32) and passer rating (104.1) last season. Yeah, it’s hard NOT to like Pittsburgh.
9. A team that’s been forgotten during the pre-season is Tampa. The Bucs won the NFC South last year and have won the division three times under head coach Jon Gruden. In fact, under Gruden, the Bucs are 17-0 since 2002 when not committing turnover. Meanwhile, quarterback Jeff Garcia was named to Pro Bowl last year and in his career (incl. playoffs), Garcia’s teams are 32-12 (.727) when he has 95+ passer rating. The Bucs will not roll over this year.
10. Can the Giants repeat? The short answer is no, but until we meet up in Tampa in January, who really knows, right?
