Tag Archives: great nfl picks

TAMPA, Fla. — There has to be a reason why picking NFL winners (across the board, not the silly pick-one-game copout that the TV network talkers pick every week) has become so difficult. Is it too many bad teams? Too many Good teams? Parity? Or just plain mediocrity?

Well, the NFL itself might have the answer for us. In this week’s league-based preview for Week 6, there is an interesting note about the number of plus-.500 teams in the league. In fact, as the NFL enters Week six,  there are still 20 teams with a .500 or better record.  According to the league’s PR department, “That’s tied for the most such teams through the first five weeks of a season in NFL history (2001).”

Eight teams – Atlanta (4-1), Baltimore (4-1), Chicago (4-1), Kansas City (3-1), New England (3-1), the New York Jets (4-1), Pittsburgh (3-1) and Tampa Bay (3-1) – lead the way with just one loss.

“We’re 4-1 and right on schedule,” said Jets head coach Rex Ryan during his Monday news conference. “We want to have the best record in the NFL at the end of the season and right now we’re on schedule.”

Meanwhile, what a huge difference a year makes.  Five of those one-loss clubs – Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay – failed to qualify for the playoffs a year ago.

“We are where we want to be,” said Bears defensive end Israel Idonije from Brandon, Man., who had a career-high three sacks last week.  “We’re 4-1 but moving forward.  We’re still taking it one game at a time.”

In the NFL, the only thing predictable is the unpredictability. And the weekly picks of Dr. Football and the Coach.

Fact is, two teams – St. Louis and Tampa Bay – have already matched or exceeded their 2009 win totals and three more clubs – Detroit, Kansas City and Washington – can do so this weekend.

“Through the first five weeks, seven of the eight division have at least one new team either in first place or tied for top spot,” claimed the NFL’s PR Dept. “If that holds, it will be the most new division winners in a single season.”

Let’s take a close look at what’s coming up in Week 6:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Chicago Bears (4-1) Line: Bears by 7.

The Bears will need QB Jay Cutler in this matchup because the Seahawks are second against the run, thanks to all the 310-pound defensive linemen they like to use. Matt Forte won’t get much, so it’ll be up to Cutler and Chicago’s roulette offense – where anything can happen on any given play – to move the chains. Seattle can be beaten aerially. The team has allowed at least 225 passing yards to each opponent it has faced; 289 passing yards if you discount Alex Smith’s brutal Week 1 performance. The bottom line is that The Seahawks are absolute garbage on the road, especially when they have to play outside of the NFC West. They’ve covered just two non-divisional road contests since December 2007. The Bears should win this game pretty easily.

Dr. Football: BEARS TO WIN AND COVER

The Coach: BEARS TO WIN AND COVER

Baltimore Ravens (4-1) at New England Patriots (3-1) Line: Patriots by 3.

This Patriots defense has been awful this year, and now the offense loses firepower in the wake of the Randy Moss trade. New England isn’t good anymore, yet this point spread says that they and Baltimore are equals. I don’t agree with that. The one edge the Patriots have is that Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare for the Ravens. The last time Belichick has lost coming off a bye was in 2002.

Dr. Football: PATRIOTS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER.

The Coach: PATRIOTS TO WIN AND COVER

Detroit Lions (1-4) at New York Giants (3-2) Line: Giants by 10.

It’s amazing how efficient the Giants can be when they’re not killing themselves with tipped-ball interceptions and penalties. Hakeem Nicks has gotten his act together after being responsible for two picks early on. In fact, Nicks is playing on an All-Pro level right now. The Texans had no answer for him, so Detroit’s sorry secondary doesn’t stand a chance. Nicks may not have to do much anyway because the Lions are a pitiful 29th against the run. Ahmad Bradshaw will likely have a big game, setting up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for Eli Manning all afternoon. What you saw from the Lions against the Rams will not happen again.

Dr. Football: GIANTS TO WIN AND COVER.

The Coach: GIANTS TO WIN AND COVER

Atlanta Falcons (4-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2) Line: Eagles by 3

Kevin Kolb could potentially struggle in this matchup. Unlike the 49ers, the Falcons can really get after the quarterback with John Abraham and Kroy Biermann. Philadelphia’s offensive line is in shambles and will have trouble blocking them. Atlanta is also much better against the run than San Francisco. Outside of two long runs in the first two weeks of the season, the Falcons have surrendered nothing on the ground. LeSean McCoy should still have a solid outing as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but won’t have much success carrying the football. The Coach, however, thinks Atlanta was lucky to beat a lousy Cleveland team on the road last week and besides, Michael Vick might play.

Dr. Football: FALCONS TO WIN.

The Coach: EAGLES TO WIN AND COVER

Cleveland Browns (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) Line: Steelers by 14.

Poor Browns. They looked halfway decent with Seneca Wallace at quarterback, but he suffered a high ankle sprain and has been ruled out for this game. Jake Delhomme reaggravated a similar injury when he purposely gave the Falcons the cover last week in an attempt to retrieve his kidnapped son and twin brother from evil degenerate gamblers. With both quarterbacks sidelined, Colt McCoy will start. The same Colt McCoy who barely made the team. The same Colt McCoy who looked lost in the preseason. The same Colt McCoy who has a noodle arm and no pro-style experience. Against the Steelers defense. Oh no!  Ben Roethlisberger is back, and the schedule works out really nicely for him. This is essentially a preseason game against a Youngstown State-type opponent. The Browns absolutely suck against the pass (30th), so Roethlisberger should have an easy time torching their secondary. Running the ball with Rashard Mendenhall will also work; the Falcons totaled 160 rushing yards on 26 carries last week, and Mendenhall has looked better than Michael Turner this season.

Dr. Football: STEELERS TO WIN AND COVER.

The Coach: STEELERS TO WIN AND COVER

Miami Dolphins (2-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-2) Line: No Line

Aaron Rodgers suffered a concussion in overtime Sunday. It’s unclear whether he’s going to play or not, which is why there is no line posted for this game. If Rodgers can play at full capacity, he shouldn’t have any trouble torching the Dolphins’ secondary. Miami is currently eighth against the pass, but that ranking is a farce because of Trent Edwards’ disgusting Week 1 performance. If Rodgers can’t play or is limited, the Packers obviously won’t be able to do much on offense. They just don’t have the running game to exploit Miami’s mediocre ground defense, meaning a hobbled Rodgers or Matt Flynn would have to beat the Dolphins in long-yardage situations with the emerging Cameron Wake attacking the backfield. The Doc says, “If Rodgers is starting take Green Bay, if he’s not take Miami.”

Dr. Football: SEE ABOVE

The Coach: PACKERS TO WIN AND COVER

San Diego Chargers (2-3) at St. Louis Rams (2-3) Line: Chargers by 8.5.

Philip Rivers must be the most frustrated person in the NFL right now. He’s having a great season – he even has more passing yards than Kyle Orton, who is chasing Dan Marino’s record – but his team can’t stop killing itself with special-teams blunders and fumbling issues. Two pieces of good news: First, left tackle Marcus McNeill is back, so Rivers will finally be protected on the blind side. And second, St. Louis’ defense stinks, and even made Shaun Hill look like the second coming of Bobby Layne (or at least Scot Mitchell).  The Rams are 22nd against the run, so the Chargers will be able to move the sticks with their ground attack. I expect Ryan Mathews to finally carry the ball more than Mike Tolbert. Tolbert was completely ineffective against Oakland, averaging about one yard per carry and fumbling at the goal line. Mathews simply looked a lot better. The Vegas line is out of control considering that the Chargers looked horrible against the Raiders…they’ll win but not by 9.

Dr. Football: CHARGERS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER.

The Coach: CHARGERS TO WIN AND COVER

New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) Line: Saints by 5

This is a really tough call to make. On one hand, Doc likes the Saints to rebound off an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals. Sean Payton always plays well in his second away game, and New Orleans itself usually thrives as road favorites. However, this is the biggest game for the Buccaneers since Week 17 of the 2008 season. They circled this contest when the schedule came out as a measuring stick for how good they’d be. They’ll give New Orleans all they’ve got. Josh Freeman just keeps looking better and better each week. He struggled early on against the Bengals and their two shutdown cornerbacks, but was very clutch at the end of the game after the Bengals foolishly threw the ball away twice. It really helps Freeman that rookie receiver Mike Williams has been this dominant so quickly.  The downfall of the Buccaneers’ scoring attack is the absence of a running game. Doc would like to see LeGarrette Blount be more involved, but for whatever reason, Raheem Morris keeps feeding the ball to Cadillac Williams, who really sucks. With Freeman having to constantly throw to ball to move the sticks, it’ll be difficult for Tampa to sustain drives, especially if Will Smith is back in the lineup for New Orleans.

Dr. Football: SAINTS TO WIN AND COVER.

The Coach: BUCCANEERS TO WIN.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) at Houston Texans (3-2) Line: Texans by 4.5.

Last week was Kansas City’s Super Bowl. The players and coaching staff had two weeks to prepare for the Colts. It was their chance to prove to everyone how good they were; for their entire bye week, they listened to the media constantly laugh, “Can you believe the Chiefs are the last undefeated team?” Kansas City brought the kitchen sink against the Colts. There were onside kicks, creative defensive schemes and attempts on fourth down. Everyone on the Chiefs (except for Dwayne Bowe) played their hearts out. It looked like they had a great chance to win, but just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Indianapolis eventually wore them down, and when Mike Hart scored a late touchdown, everyone on the Kansas City sideline looked defeated. Now, the Chiefs have to travel again to play a Houston squad that looked awful last Sunday. How can Kansas City possibly get up for this game? It’s not like they even need to win because everyone else in their division is 2-3. Speaking of the Texans, they were awful against the Giants. As mentioned though, the fact that Andre Johnson and Arian Foster weren’t healthy really screwed up the game plan. In the wake of Houston’s big loss, this line has dipped down to -4.5. Had the Texans won, we may have seen -5.5 or -6 on the board. We’re getting solid value here with the host.

Dr. Football: TEXANS TO WIN AND COVER.

The Coach: TEXANS TO WIN AND COVER

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Francisco 49ers (0-5) Line: 49ers by 6.5.

Whom did Mike Singletary sleep with to get his team favored by 6.5 points? This line makes absolutely no sense. In case you were wondering, only three 0-5 teams in the modern era have been favored. They’re 1-2 against the spread. Here’s the thing though – none of those three teams were favored by more than 3.5 points. The 49ers are laying 6.5!

Dr. Football: 49ERS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER.

The Coach: 49ERS TO WIN AND COVER

New York Jets (4-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3) Line: Jets by 3.

Save for some ridiculous clock-management issues at the end of the Vikings contest, the Jets are playing very good football right now. Doc doesn’t see any reason why they can’t win this game; they’re a much better team than the Broncos, even with Denver’s homefield advantage in mind. The Coach disagrees.

Dr. Football: JETS TO WIN AND COVER.

The Coach: BRONCOS TO WIN.

Dallas Cowboys (1-3) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3) Line: Vikings by 2.

Doc has to wonder if Brett Favre’s near comeback on Monday night was for real or just a mirage. Favre was awful for more than a half and was constantly clutching at his elbow. Was the Jets’ defense just tired at the end of Monday night’s game? Doc can’t say he’s sure, but here’s something he does know – Favre’s offensive line can’t pass protect very well, and the Cowboys can bring tons of pressure without using exotic blitzes. Favre was sacked four times in New York, and Doc thinks Dallas could possibly exceed that number with DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff rushing the sexter. We mean passer. What the Vikings will be able to do is establish the run with Adrian Peterson. Dallas has allowed 260 rushing yards in its last two games, and Peterson should have more running room as Randy Moss stays on the field more often to draw attention away from the defense. This is basically do-or-die for both teams. Both Dallas and Minnesota could be screwed at 1-4 if their divisional opponents win this weekend.

Dr. Football: VIKINGS TO WIN AND COVER.

The Coach: VIKINGS TO WIN AND COVER

SUNDAY NIGHT

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Washington Redskins (3-2) Line: Colts by 3.

The Redskins ran the ball really well two weeks ago at Philadelphia with Clinton Portis and Ryan Torain. They’ll need to duplicate that feat to have a chance at beating the Colts. Indianapolis, as you might now, sucks against the run.  Washington must control the clock and keep Peyton Manning off the field like the Chiefs were able to do last week. Unfortunately, that game plan could easily be thrown out the window if the Colts strike quickly and establish a 14-0 lead in the first quarter. If that happens, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis will tee off on Donovan McNabb. You don’t bet against Manning on Sunday or Monday night. Actually, you don’t bet against Manning period when all he has to do is just win. The Colts are 10-3 against the spread on the road when the line is +3 to -3 since 2007.

Dr. Football: COLTS TO WIN AND COVER.

The Coach: COLTS TO WIN AND COVER

MONDAY NIGHT

Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-2) Line: Titans by 3.

Doc thinks this is a great spot for Jacksonville. The Jaguars are the laziest team in the NFL, but they get up for divisional games, especially when they are underdogs. They’ll have extra motivation here because this will be the first Monday Night Football game Jacksonville will be hosting since 2007. The Titans, meanwhile, won’t be able to match the Jaguars’ intensity, as they are coming off a huge upset victory in Dallas.

Dr. Football: JAGUARS TO WIN.

The Coach: JAGUARS TO WIN.

If you’re in a survivor pool, you have three options: Bears, Giants and Steelers.

The Doc went 6-8 last week and now is 39-37 on the season, and went 8-6 against the spread and is 37-39 YTD. The Coach went 5-9 straight up last week and 4-10 against the spread. For the season, the Coach is 39-37 straight up and 29-44-3 against the spread.