I have received plenty of complaints from friends who like to wager on the NFL. They say it’s never been crazier. They claim the games have never been closer. They claim the officials have to much to do with the outcomes. They say parity is killing their fun.
Killing their wins, maybe.
In fairness, the NFL stats people would probably agree with a lot of those complaints. Although they might not consider them mistakes, necessarily.
“Teams that you might expect to win don’t win,” said New England Patriots head coachBill Belichick during his weekly news conference. “Teams that you might not expect to win, win and win big. A lot of real close, competitive games come down to the last possession, the last play or one key play right at the end of the game. The league looks very competitive to me all the way across the board.”
Indeed.
According to the NFL’s head office: “With 31 of 104 NFL games (29.8%) decided by three points or fewer, the league is trending towards the highest percentage of three-point games since 1970 (1997, 67 of 240, 27.9%).”
Naturally, the Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers will expect a close game this week – eight of their 14 games this season have been decided by eight points or fewer – as the NFL returns to London and historic Wembley Stadium this week. Both clubs seek to heat up as the second half of the season approaches.
The 49ers traveled directly from Charlotte to London on Sunday after a 23-20 loss to the Carolina Panthers and spent the entire week in the United Kingdom preparing for the Broncos, who arrive in the U.K. on Friday morning.
The Denver-San Francisco match-up will mark the fourth consecutive season in which a regular-season NFL game will be played at Wembley. Another sellout crowd in excess of 80,000 is expected to greet the Broncos and 49ers.
According to the oddsmakers, most games will be close this week. The spread for eight of the 14 games is fewer than three points.
We had a pretty good week last week so we won’t change things up. Doc Football has decided to write this week’s picks once again and we’ll let him go.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Washington Redskins (4-3) at Detroit Lions (1-5) Line: Lions by 2.5.
The Lions have played better than their record shows, but unfortunately that doesn’t mean anything in the standings. With a 1-5 record, though, staying in contention won’t be easy and it will take a miraculous second half run. The good news for the Lions is that Matthew Stafford is back, after getting hurt in week one. When you look at this game, the Lions actually rank ahead of the Redskins on total offense (16 vs. 18) despite only winning one game so far. The Redskins, who have 15 sacks in the last six games, will bring the heat and test the returning Stafford, but will offer little else, as they are dreadful against both the run (30th) and pass (23rd).
Dr. Football: LIONS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: LIONS TO WIN AND COVER.
Buffalo Bills (0-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) Line: Chiefs by 7.5
I wonder if the Bills effort last week against the Ravens was the result of Ryan Fitzpatrick finally coming into his own, or the Ravens were looking to an easy win prior to their bye week? Fitzpatrick went 29 for 43 for 373 yards and four touchdowns and pushed the Ravens defence to its biggest test so far this year. The Chiefs boast the league’s best rushing attack, and Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles should run wild against the Bills. With the Bills focusing on defending against the ground game, this will allow the unspectacular Matt Cassel to find his receivers. The Bills rank 29th against the pass anyway, so it’s not like Cassel will need much help in this matchup.
Dr. Football: CHIEFS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: CHIEFS TO WIN AND COVER.
Carolina Panthers (1-5) at St. Louis Rams (3-4) Line: Rams by 3
This is the Rams fifth home game this season and the Dome is a place where they have had success in 2010. The team is 3-1 in those contests with victories against Washington, Seattle and San Diego and with only a 17-13 loss to Arizona in week 1. The Rams are coming off a heartbreaking 18-17 defeat at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. The Rams defense allowed a game winning touchdown in the closing seconds in a game they should of won. The Rams were able to post 285 yards on the Buccaneers last week and converted on 7 of 14 on third downs. The team had a great day running the football with 161 yards rushing on 31 carries for a 5 yards per rush average. The Panthers are coming off their first win this season as they defeated the San Francisco 49ers 23-20 last week, but 11 random fans from the stands could of done that.
Dr. Football: RAMS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: RAMS TO WIN AND COVER.
Green Bay Packers (4-3) at New York Jets (5-1) Line: Jets by 6.
The Packers and Jets are meeting for the first time since the 2006 season that saw the Jets post the 38-10 upset victory . The Packers defence allowed 402 yards to the Vikings last week. They gave up 196 yards on the ground despite the win. That is a huge concern as a the Jets are a good running team with the addition of LT and they are coming off a bye week. The Jets will be rested and have Darrelle Revis fully functional for this game. Unfortunately for the Packers, too many injuries will cast a dim light on their Super Bowl aspirations.
Dr. Football: JETS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: JETS TO WIN AND COVER.
Denver Broncos (2-5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-6) Line: 49ers by 1
The 49ers and the Broncos will take to the London stage to show off the NFL to a European audience. The fans there must be wondering what they did to piss off the NFL. Perhaps only a game between the 0-6 Bills and 1-5 Panthers would draw more groans. The 49ers, after a 23-20 loss in Carolina, arrived in London early in the week and even the citizens of London heard the whispers about coach Mike Singletary’s job security or lack thereof. Broncos coach Josh McDaniels admitted, in a 59-14 loss at home to the Raiders. that his team was “awful”. Horrible is more like it. They have now gone just 4-13 since opening the McDaniels’ era 6-0 last season. He could also be joining Singletary on the unemployment line if the Broncos can’t rally from this “awful” start. Two coaches fighting for their job is probably not the storyline the NFL was hoping to give the overseas fans.
Dr. Football: BRONCOS TO WIN (FANS TO LOSE)
The Coach: BRONCOS TO WIN.
Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4) Line: Bengals by 2.
hese clubs are meeting for the first time since week 17 in the 2007 season that saw the Bengals earn the 38-25 victory. The Dolphins will be playing their fourth road game of the season and the team stands a perfect 3-0 away from Miami (too much South Beach maybe). They own victories against Buffalo, Minnesota and Green Bay, cities that can be described as anything but exciting. The Dolphins are coming off a 23-22 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week in a game that has been dubbed “fumble gate” (more on that later). The team put up 313 yards on the Steelers last week and converted on only 3 of 12 on third down. The team disappointed in the red zone scoring zero touchdowns on three tries inside the Steelers 20 yard line. Their run game continues its struggles with just 64 yards on 21 carries. The Bengals have to be one of the biggest disappointments in NFL history as TO and “the artist formerly known as Chad Johnson” continue to run routs as Carson Palmer has been unable to get them the ball, although he did show signs of life last week as Cincinnati was able to produce 469 yards last week on the Falcons defence and converted on 7 of 12 on third down. The team passed for 385 yards and Palmer completed 36 of 50 passing for 412 yards with three touchdowns and no picks. The Dolphins are the true Road Warriors this season, and I believe they will successfully defend that title on Sunday.
Dr. Football: DOLPHINS TO WIN.
The Coach: BENGALS TO WIN AND COVER.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (1-5) Line: Cowboys by 7.
It says something about your team is when Vegas has the Cowboys as the 7 point favourite when your star QB is out for 6 weeks with an injury and jobber QB Jon Kitna is the starter. I got a good laugh on Tuesday morning when I read Roy Williams’ comments about backup Jon Kitna being under center for the foreseeable future; “Tony is our starter, but Jon is just as good,’ Williams said. “We are going to work this week in practice so we can get the timing down with the receivers. But I have complete faith in him. I have played with him for three years and I know how good he is.” Oh brother. Jags David Garrard should be back, but will probably spend most of the game on his back, as the Cowboys defence will be out to prove they are not the issue. Even though Kitna is not anywhere near what I would expect from an NFL starter, I can’t see any way the Cowboys can lose this week at home.
Dr. Football: COWBOYS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: COWBOYS TO WIN AND COVER.
Tennessee Titans (5-2) at San Diego Chargers (2-5) Line: Chargers by 3.5
Who would of guessed that of the 2 teams the Titans would be the one 5-2 and the Chargers would be 2-5. Not all of this can be blamed on Norv Turner’s poor September record. If you look at the stats, the Chargers are the best 2-5 team of all time; they rank first in both offence and defence, and Phillip Rivers has been having a great season and is on pace to eclipse Dan Marino’s single season yardage record. If fact, last week against the Patriots, San Diego lost despite 363 yards of offense and 23 first downs along with converting 7-of-15 third-down tries. So why have the Chargers lost 5 games so far this season? Early in the season they were victimized by special teams errors. On Sunday, it was primarily turnovers(four of them) that cost them. YTD, the Chargers are tied for 30th in the NFL in turnover margin (minus-7), with their 18 giveaways in seven games one shy of their total for all of last season. The Chargers are also first against the pass, so the returning Vince Young will have to use Chris Johnson more, but San Diego just happens to be fourth against the run. If Young wants to pass he will need to get in sync with Kenny Britt who had three TDs and 225 receiving yards (after being benched for the first quarter) on Sunday. Britt has scored in five consecutive games. So what does all this mean? The Chargers are better on both sides of the ball despite their record.
Dr. Football: CHARGERS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: CHARGERS TO WIN AND COVER.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3) Line: Cardinals by 3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be the surprise of the season so far. Not only have they surpassed their win total from last season by week 7, QB Josh Freeman has exceeded anyone’s expectations. Freeman will continue to develop and improve in each game ahead, and that will only mean more success for the Buc’s. But by no means is this team Super Bowl bound, the Buccaneers rank next to last in rushing defense, middle of the league in total defense, and well below average in total offense. The Cardinals are still struggling with putting Kurt Warner behind them as he is still seen every Monday night in tight pants, although he is not surrounded by 10 ugly mean looking men. The Cards put the boots to the Saints in New Orleans two weeks ago , but then limped into the rain at Seattle, where there plan for a win was doused. As I write this, it is stillunclear who will start for Arizona as Max Hall suffered a concussion last week and then Derek Anderson took over and led Arizona on a scoring drive, but was dreadful afterward. This will be a close one, and I think the Cards will be happy to play at home.
Dr. Football: CARDINALS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: CARDINALS TO WIN AND COVER.
Minnesota Vikings (2-4) at New England Patriots (5-1) Line: Patriots by 5.5
This will be the first meeting between the Vikings and Patriots since the 2006 season that saw New England post a 31-7 victory against the Vikings in Minneapolis in a Monday Night game that saw the Patriots never run the ball…Brady beat the Vikes in the air.Favre’s status is uncertain as I write this. He has two fractures in his left ankle that could keep him on the sideline for the first time since 1992.
Tavaris Jackson has had the job before; his career record in 20 starts, including one post-season game, is 10-10. If Favre indeed suits up to keep his consecutive-games streak alive, he’ll have no problems against the New England secondary that has allowed at least 285 passing yards to each opponent in the past three weeks. The Patriots have struggled against the pass all season, and seem to be sputtering in the two games so far without Randy Moss (I wonder if he will get a reception like Favre did in Green Bay on Sunday night?) Speaking of Sunday night; if you read Scott Taylor’s blog this is what his take on the refereeing was:
Brad Childress is pissed and according to a Fox television analyst who was quoted by the St. Paul Pioneer Press — a man who used to be the NFL’s director of officiating — Childress has every right to be pissed.
In fact, the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings called Sunday night’s game in Green Bay, “the worst officiated game I’ve ever seen.”
Childress is upset about a dreadful call by head referee Scott Green, a guy who has been involved in so many questionable calls — and I use the word “questionable” in a moral sense, not in a sense of competency — that you have to wonder why he hasn’t been investigated by the NFL (and having said that, he even got the Super Bowl job this past year).
On Sunday night, Green’s field judge signalled “touchdown” on a pass from Brett Favre to Visanthe Shiancoe in the second quarter of Sunday’s game, a touchdown pass that should have given the Vikings a 21-14 lead and ultimately, should have given them the victory in what was a terrific football game.
That was the second worst job of officiating this year. Which game was worse? Read on my friends. Oh yea,
Dr. Football: VIKINGS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: VIKINGS TO WIN AND COVER.
Seattle Seahawks (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-4) Line: Raiders by 2
A Halloween game in Oakland? Isn’t every home game in Oakland Halloween? Both teams are coming off convincing victories in divisional games with the Raiders crushing the Broncos 59-14 and the Seahawks topping the Cardinals 22-10. Both teams could really use a win here as they both look to keep their momentum going as they push to be division champions. Oakland hasn’t won two consecutive games since the last two games of 2008.The match up here to watch is Oakland’s Darren McFadden vs. Seahawks defensive tackle Colin Cole. The Seahawks allow an average of 77.5 rushing yards per game, 2nd in the NFL. McFadden leads the Raiders rushing attack that is 3rd in the NFL at 158.4 rushing per game and the Raiders totalled over 300 rushing yards on Denver. The Raiders running attack will determine the outcome of this game. If Cole and the rest of the Seahawks front seven can stuff the running lanes, that will put pressure on Jason Campbell to throw more, which hasn’t been Oakland’s recipe for victory. The Raiders can also run with Michael Bush who has been the alternate power mode to McFadden’s outside speed style.
Dr. Football: RAIDERS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: RAIDERS TO WIN AND COVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1) at New Orleans Saints (4-3) Line: Steelers by 1.5.
Big Ben got lucky last week after the referees in one of the stupidest decisions of all time decided that they couldn’t determine who recovered his end-zone fumble. To recap; Miami was leading 20-19 late in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh was facing third-and-goal at the 2, Roethlisberger charged towards the goal line but was stopped just inches before and fumbled the ball. The ref that was standing RIGHT there put his hands in the air (like he just don’t care) and happily awarded the Steelers the touchdown. As the ball rolled into the end zone, EVERY Miami player and two Miami cheerleaders jumped on it. Dolphin’s coach Tony Sparano correctly challenged the play as it was even obvious to the guy flying the blimp that Ben fumbled before he broke the plain, and Miami recovered. After a replay review, referee Gene Steratore announced that Roethlisberger fumbled before scoring. But Steratore said his crew had no clear evidence as to which team recovered the ball, and the Steelers were awarded possession at the half-yard line, allowing Jeff Reed to kick the winner. Unbelievable. This week the Steelers will have to face the Saints. The defending champs haven’t played as anticipated this season and are coming off a loss to the Cleveland Browns in which QB Drew Brees threw four interceptions. Pittsburgh has won four consecutive road games and is the stronger team in this matchup.
Dr. Football: STEELERS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: STEELERS TO WIN AND COVER.
MONDAY NIGHT
Houston Texans (4-2) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2) Line: Colts by 5.5
With all the speculation this week about the status of Brett Favre’s 18-year record of consecutive starts, the Colts have a streak too, one that could end Monday night when they play host to Houston. The Texans have already beaten the Colts once this season, and will be looking to recreate the magic with a win at Lucas Oil Stadium. That’s not going to be that easy. Sure, the Colts defense may be hurting, but they do have linebacker Clint Sessions back making big plays. He wasn’t a factor the first time these two teams met but he has been on fire the last couple of games. The Texans defense is ranked last in the NFL allowing over 410 yards per game, and are ranked last against the pass, allowing an average of over 300 yards passing per game. Even in defeat, the Colts amassed 463 yards in the opener. Peyton Manning should have a big, big game even without his full set of receivers at his fingertips although Anthony Gonzalez will back after missing the past five games. The roof better be open in Indy, the Colts could very well blow it off.
Dr. Football: COLTS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: COLTS TO WIN AND COVER.
If you’re still in a survivor pool you have lots of choices: Indianapolis, Kansas City, New York Jets and St. Louis.
The Doc was 7-7 last week and is 56-48 on the season. He was 9-5 vs. the spread, and sits at 55-49 this year. The Coach was 10-4 last week, 57-47 on the season. He was 7-6-1 against the spread and is 40-58-6 for the season.