To suggest there have been a few upsets this season would be understating the obvious.Take last week as a for instance. The Bills came from 21 down to beat New England. Minnesota had a 20-0 lead at halftime and lost 26-23 in overtime to Detroit. Seattle beat Arizona 13-10, Tampa knocked off Atlanta 16-13 and the New York Giants went into Philadelphia and whipped the Eagles 29-16.
Buffalo Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
Because of all these upsets, poor Doc Football had, as the say in Foxboro, Mass., a wicked-bad week. In fact, by his own admission, “The Doc shit the bed and went 9-7 and is 28-20 on the year; against the spread I was 7-9 and 24-24 YTD.”
Which is why, for the first time in the history of the River City Sports Blog’s weekly NFL picks, the Coach is the leader after three weeks. Last week, The Coach went 10-6 straight up (35-13 on the season) and a Matt Millen-like 5-11 (24-24) against the spread, but The Coach still leads straight up and that’s all that matters. As Denise Richards uttered in the motion picture cult classic Drop Dead Gorgeous, “I’m a winner and Jesus loves winner.”
In the meantime, here’s something to think about this week: Three teams, including the Super Bowl XLV champion Green Bay Packers, have perfect 3-0 records through Week 3. The Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions, whose records also remain unblemished this year and trying to become the fifth and sixth teams since the 12-team playoff format was adopted in 1990 to open a season 4-0 after opening the previous season 0-4.
Three of the four teams to accomplish the feat qualified for the playoffs, with two reaching the Divisional Playoffs. Can the Lions and Bills pull it off this week. I kind of think they might. Let’s look more closely at Week 4 with the Doc writing our justifications:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Lions QB Matthew Stafford
Detroit Lions (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
Line: Cowboys by 1
The Coach’s team is for real. The Lions offense has found their star in the newly toughened up Matthew Stafford and receivers such as Brandon Pettigrew and Calvin Johnson. Their defense is being lead by Ndamukong Suh and Stephen Tulloch. That’s a sweet combination for success…finally. The Cowboys are struggling a bit, barely winning late in games. Dallas QB Tony Romo has really shown some grit by playing with broken ribs and a punctured lung, but the Lions are going to dominate this game. They just have too much offensive firepower, too much defensive swagger (where have we heard that before) and two terrific special teams units. Detroit is simply better.
Dr. Football LIONS to win.
The Coach: LIONS to win
New Orleans Saints (2-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2)
Line: Saints by 6.5
Blaine Gabbert will spend a lot of time on the turf while Drew Brees will spend a lot of time celebrating in the end zone. No contest.
Dr. Football: SAINTS to win and cover.
The Coach: SAINTS to win and cover.
San Francisco 49ers (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)
Line: Eagles by 8
Michael Vick is expected to play. The Eagles need him to play. They need a win especially at home or the fans may riot as they are now questioning Vick’s heart. The 49ers defense has been stopping the run, their offense has been creating key opportunities, and their special teams have made some huge plays. This will be a close won.
Dr. Football: EAGLES to win but not cover.
The Coach: EAGLES to win and cover.
Washington Redskins (2-1) at St. Louis Rams (0-3)
Line: Rams by 1.
The Rams Sam Bradford
No one is sure what has happened to the Rams this year, but QB Sam Bradford is not playing up to his expectations at all. His receivers aren’t great, but that is no different than last year, so what gives? Nothing will give against the Redskins defense. They will be able to stop the Rams passing game and win on the road.
Dr. Football: REDSKINS TO WIN.
The Coach: RAMS to win and cover.
Tennessee Titans (2-1) at Cleveland Browns (2-1)
Line: Browns by 1
Cleveland pulled it off with less than a minute to go last week, without Peyton Hillis. This week, Hillis is back in the line up but it will be against a Titan defense that restricted Ray Rice and the Ravens to just 45 rushing yards in Week 2. Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck has been effective for the Titans, however, Kenny Britt is hurt and out for the season. The Browns secondary will own the Britt-less Titans. Go with the home team.
Dr. Football: BROWNS to win and cover (duh).
The Coach: BROWNS to win and cover.
Buffalo Bills (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2)
Line: Bills by 3
Beating New England last week proved the Bills are for real. The offense has shown over the last two weeks the ability to come back from huge deficits. The Bills defense is making the right plays at the right times, giving their offense the opportunity to put points on the board. The Bengals defense will wear down, and be unable to stop Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Dr. Football: BILLS to win and cover.
The Coach: BILLS to win and cover.
Note to Vikings: Give Adrian Peterson the football.
Minnesota Vikings (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
Line: Vikings by 1.5
The Chiefs almost pulled off an upset last week in San Diego, and that was extremely unexpected, but QB Matt Cassel reminded everyone why they were 0-2. The Vikings have lost all three of their games after leading by double-digits at halftime. The Vikings have proven that safe play-calling in the second half will get you nowhere, but 0-3. A lot of people think that since KC were able to keep up with the Chargers last week that they will prevail at home…I don’t share that thought.
Dr. Football: VIKINGS to win and cover.
The Coach: VIKINGS to win and cover.
The Panthers Cam Newton
Carolina Panthers (1-2) at Chicago Bears (1-2)
Line: Bears by 6.5
The Panthers and Cam Newton are coming off a much needed win last week, but their prize is that they have to face the Bears. Chicago’s defense isn’t going to let them do much. Chicago’s offense, specifically QB Jay Cutler, hasn’t exactly been stellar the last two weeks, and this week will be a bit of a break as Carolina’s defense isn’t awful, but they are young and struggling a bit. The Bears offense will put up more points as Cutler will utilize the run and pass effectively. Bears defense will find away to school Cam Newton.
Dr. Football: BEARS to win and cover.
The Coach: BEARS to win and not cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) at Houston Texans (2-1)
Line: Texans by 4
The Steelers may have snuck out a win last week against a weak Colts team, but they shouldn’t celebrate too much. Their offensive line is going to be exploited this week as the Texans do more damage that the Colts did. Houston’s offense is going to dominate this game on the ground and in the air.
Dr. Football: TEXANS to win and cover..
The Coach: TEXANS to win but not cover.
Atlanta Falcons (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Line: Falcons by 4.5
How are the preseason Super Bowl favorites 1-2? Matt Ryan hasn’t had the hot start he wanted for the Falcons, but he will get his team back on the right track against the pitiful Seattle Seahawks, home field advantage or not. Look for Ryan to lean on the ground game with Michael Turner and jump out to an early lead and quiet the usually boisterous crowd.
Dr. Football: FALCONS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: FALCONS to win and cover.
The Giants Eli Manning
New York Giants (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
Line: Giants by 1
If ever the Cardinals and Kevin Kolb had a reason to smile coming off a big loss, it’s the idea that Larry Fitzgerald will match up against an injury depleted Giants secondary. Though the Arizona Cardinals are at home, Kolb must look deep into his old Eagles playbooks to help his offense attack the Giants before Eli Manning can find a rhythm (Coach sez: Manning is the best quarterback in the NFL over the past six quarters. As a result the Giants are playing way over their collective little heads. It’s hard not to like that).
Dr. Football: CARDINALS to win.
The Coach: GIANTS to win and cover.
Miami Dolphins (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)
Line: Chargers by 7
I don’t think Miami is really 0-3 bad. But after this one, I do think they’ll be 0-4 bad. Chargers and Rivers have not looked very good; their wins have come against winless teams. Miami’s defense is tough and will rattle Philip Rivers, but they won’t win.
Dr. Football: CHARGERS to win but not cover.
The Coach: CHARGERS to win but not cover.
Denver Broncos (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-0)
Line: Packers by 13
The Packers look like the class of the NFC. The Broncos? They look like they are failing class. Horrible mismatch.
Dr. Football: PACKERS to win and cover.
The Coach: PACKERS to win and cover.
New England Patriots (2-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-1)
Line: Patriots by 4
Great matchup, and a great chance for the Pats to be 2-2 with a two game losing streak. Darren McFadden may be the NFL’s best player right now. New England is coming off a tough loss last week and will be looking for a win, and that’s it. The Raiders defense will contend for a while, but will eventually be worn down as their offense won’t keep be on the field long enough. Brady will rebound from last week’s debacle.
Dr. Football: PATRIOTS to win and cover.
The Coach: PATRIOTS to win and cover.
SUNDAY NIGHT
The Ravens Ray Rice
New York Jets (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
Line: Ravens by 3
The Jet’s were beat up physically last week against the Raiders and didn’t win despite Mark Sanchez throwing for 369 yards. All Sanchez got was a broken nose. The Jets ineffective running game is a big problem, tied mostly to their lousy offensive line. That is an advantage for the Ravens. Joe Flacco has been let loose, and he’s been very good. The Ravens rebounded nicely from that nightmare in Nashville and should have little trouble at home.
Dr. Football: RAVENS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: RAVENS to win and cover.
MONDAY NIGHT
Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 10
Kerry Collins is slow to get up. No kidding.
The Colts season is over before it ever began. Nice of ol’ Peyton to sign that big $100,000,000 deal then call in sick. The Colts put up a good fight on Sunday night against the Steelers, but QB Kerry Collins had his bell rung, and his back-up Curtis Painter is horrible. The Bucs are coming off a big win against the Falcons and this momentum will carry them on MNF.
Dr. Football: BUCCANEERS to win and cover.
The Coach: BUCCANEERS to win and cover.