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Week 18 in the CFL. Will Saskatchewan or Edmonton be the crossover team?

The six CFL playoff-bound teams are all set: Montreal and Winnipeg will play host to post-season games in the East. Calgary, Edmonton, B.C. and Saskatchewan have all made it in the West, but we still aren’t sure who will play whom.

That’s because one of those Western teams will morph into an Eastern team and play the Eastern semifinal in Winnipeg on Nov. 8. That team will be Edmonton if they lose to Saskatchewan on Saturday night, but the Roughriders have been so ravaged by injuries this year that it’s hard to imagine them beating a good opponent anytime soon. And Edmonton IS a good opponent.

 

Frankly, if I were Edmonton right now, I’d throw the game, rest my stars and finish last in the West. Playing in Winnipeg in the Eastern semifinal on a cold, November Saturday as opposed to playing in Calgary or Saskatchewan in the semifinal would be a lot more inviting. When you consider the West is 22-6 against the East this season, playing the Bombers would be a lot better than playing against a Western rival.

 

So that’s it. All that’s left in the CFL regular season is to determine which team finishes in which spot in the West.

 

So does all this sound familiar to you? It should. The league has been like this for almost the entire season and now the CFL is finally — we’re told — discussing a change to the concept of divisional alignments.

 

In fact, I’ll be on the Saskatchewan Roughriders pre-game show this Saturday evening (around 5 p.m. CDT) with host Roger Currie, discussing my column in last week’s National Post where I suggested the CFL needed to go to an non-divisional, eight-team format as soon as possible.

 

In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at Week 18…

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Week 17 in the CFL. All that’s left is the crossover team.

The six CFL playoff-bound teams are pretty well determined: Montreal and Winnipeg in the East and Calgary, Edmonton, B.C. and Saskatchewan in the West.

 

One of those Western teams, however, will morph into an Eastern team and play the Eastern semifinal in Winnipeg on Nov. 8. That team is beginning to look like Saskatchewan, a team that has been so ravaged by injuries this year that it looks more like the Hilltops than the Roughriders.

 

Montreal has the East by the cojones, Winnipeg could finish 6-12 and still play host to the Eastern semifinal. The West, however, remains a competitive quandary. Will Calgary hold on or will Edmonton catch its hated rival? Will B.C. or Saskatchewan get to make the trip to Winnipeg as opposed to say, Edmonton?

 

Frankly, If I were a slumping Western team right now, I’d rather finish last in the West than third. Playing in Winnipeg as opposed to Calgary or Edmonton in the semifinal would be a lot more inviting.

 

All that’s left in the CFL regular season is to determine which team finishes in which spot in the West. 

 

So let’s take a closer look…

 

B.C. Lions (9-6) at Edmonton Eskimos (9-6)

 

Friday, 8 p.m. CT, TSN

 

The B.C. Lions appear to be playing like a team that is trying desperately to finish fourth in the West. They were dreadful last week against Edmonton in their own barn and it now looks like they’d much rather play Winnipeg than the Eskimos. And why not? The Lions are 3-5 against the West and 6-1 against the East. The Eskimos are about to get a home-and-home sweep under their belts. And, oh yeah, Ricky Ray has never looked better. 

 

Pick: Edmonton

Montreal Alouettes (10-5) at Toronto Argonauts (4-11)

Saturday 2 p.m. CT, TSN

This game isn’t fair for two reasons. No. 1 Don Matthews is 69 and he hasn’t won a game since his return to coaching this season and No. 2, Anthony Calvillo is the best player in the CFL. Tough combination for a wonky Argos team that would have a lot of trouble beating the Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants. Calvillo has already thrown for 5,097 yards this season and Ben Cahoon will soon become the third leading all-time receiver in CFL history — even though the current No. 3 (Milt Stegall) is still playing. This Montreal team should win the Grey Cup.

Pick: Montreal

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (6-9) at Calgary Stampeders (10-5) 

Saturday 5:30 p.m. CT, TSN

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are so convinced they’re finishing second in the East, they started selling playoff tickets to the general public today. In fact, if Montreal beats Toronto (which they will), the Bombers could clinch that No. 2 spot in the East before the game begins. Calgary is a 10 1/2-point favourite and for good reason. If the Stampeders defence is even marginally decent, the Stamps will win by two touchdowns. But then again, that defence has more brain farts than Brain Fart Burris.

 

Pick: Calgary

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-12) at Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-6)

Sunday, 2 p.m. CT, TSN

This could be the best game of the week. Neither team is very good and the Saskatchewan slump prompted one Blue Bombers defensive player to say this week: “I wouldn’t mind another shot at Saskatchewan. That team is on the way down.” They’re on the way down because they have no players left. No team has suffered more injuries to key starters this season than Saskatchewan and last week, in a 43-5 shellacking at the hands of Calgary, they looked like a junior team. Derian Durant will get the ball this week, replacing Michael (The Bust) Bishop. The Tiger-Cats, despite some decent vibes from young QB Quinton Porter two weeks ago, were awful against Montreal last week and are the worst team in the CFL for the fourth consecutive year. Since the West always beats the East at home, the Riders will get their groove back.

Pick: Saskatchewan

Last Week: 3-1

Season: 36-16

Week 16 in the CFL. The playoff participants could be set this week.

You know are far the Canadian Football League’s Eastern Division has fallen into the abyss when a game between the 5-9 Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the 4-10 Toronto Argonauts has playoff implications.

 

And not just implications. If the Bombers win and get to 6-9, they’re all but guaranteed a shot at the post-season. If the Argos win, they’re tied with the Bombers and back in the hunt.

 

And here’s what’s even uglier. This is not just a fight for the playoffs, but a battle for second place in the East. Second place! The East is a mess, but on the upside, in Week 16 at least, the East plays the East and all the power in the West plays against all the power in the West. That means we should see some pretty good football games.

 

For the most part, it will be a close and competitive Thanksgiving Weekend, except for, perhaps, the opener. Let’s take a closer look…

 

Toronto Argonauts (4-10) at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (5-9)

 

Friday, 7:30 p.m. CT, TSN

 

This has the makings of a rout. Kerry Joseph, with the worst passer’s rating among (sometimes) starting quarterbacks in the CFL with a 69.2 mark, will start for an Argos team that still hasn’t won for Don Matthews. There seems to be a lot of angst in Winnipeg, worrying about this one, simply because Toronto has won two-of-three against the Bombers so far this season, but here’s why Bomber fans should stop worrying. A win tomorrow night against the Argos, a team the Bombers beat 39-9 in Toronto four weeks ago, will wrap up a playoff spot. Forget the mathematics, win ad it’s a done deal. And even if the Bombers don’t win, just one more win down the stretch should lock up that playoff spot. I’ve said it for months, 6-10 makes the grade in the East. I still believe that. However, what’s important to remember is that the last time these two teams met, in Toronto, Winnipeg won 39-9. This could get ugly.

 

Pick: Winnipeg

Edmonton Eskimos (8-6) at B.C. Lions (9-5)

Friday, 10:30 p.m. CT, TSN

The Lions have won five straight games to go from 4-5 to 9-5 and move into a first-place tie in the West although, in fairness, three of the five wins have come against Hamilton and Toronto (yeah, it’s true, you could get 11 of your buddies together and beat Toronto and Hamilton). The Eskimos, who can clinch a playoff spot with a win, whipped Winnipeg at home last week and Ricky Ray looked good in the process, but always remember the home-away scenario in the West, B.C. is at home. 

Pick: B.C.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-11) at Montreal Alouettes (9-5) 

Monday, Noon CT, TSN

Last week, these two teams met in Hamilton. Montreal’s Anthony Calvillo, who absolutely, positively should be the CFL’s most outstanding player, threw for 468 yards and four touchdowns while Hamilton’s new hotshot stud, Quinton Porter threw for 429 yards and FIVE touchdowns. In an amazing football game, Hamilton beat the Als 44-36. Wow! It won’t happen again. Especially in Montreal’s little band-box.

 

Pick: Montreal

Saskatchewan Roughriders (9-5) at Calgary Stampeders (9-5)

Sunday, 3:30 p.m. CT, TSN

Things aren’t getting better in Saskatchewan, they’re getting worse. This week, the Riders had 19 players on the DL. Last week, they had 18 and still the Green Men beat the Stampeders 37-34 in a nasty game that ended with fines, after a number of Stamps got themselves into an altercation with the officials (as bad as the officiating is in the CFL, you just have to fine a way to ignore it, boys). Calgary is the better team and they are playing at home this week.

 

Pick: Calgary

Last Week: 2-2

Season: 33-15

The CFL’s Week 15 is in the books. Have we learned anything yet?

I love that question. “Have we learned anything yet?” We’ve been chasing around the CFL for 15 weeks and after 15 weeks the only thing we’ve learned is that there are no guarantees.

 

Oh, don’t worry, we certainly  thought there were guarantees. After 14 weeks we thought we had the Conference champions figured out. I mean Montreal and Calgary were red-hot as we passed the midway point of the 2008 Canadian Football League season. Calgary in the West, Montreal in the East, let’s play the Grey Cup right now.

 

Then along came Week 15. Calgary goes on the road and loses 37-34 to Saskatchewan. Montreal goes on the road and loses 44-36 to Hamilton. Now I understand the Calgary loss. Regina is a tough place to play and the Calgary defence is not very good, but the Montreal loss to sad-sack Hamilton was a shocker.

 

Anthony Calvillo went an unbelievable 44-for-53 for 468 yards and four touchdowns  — three receivers had at least 100 yards and three had at least 10 catches — and the Als still lost as Quinton Porter went 27-for-32 for 429 yards and five touchdowns.

 

Montreal rushed for 10 yards in the game. That’s how you lose in the CFL, even when you put up 36 points.

 

Let’s take a look at the five things we learned in Week 15.

 

1. Home teams are still a safe bet. Western Conference teams are now 20-7 at home. In the East, teams are 13-16 (Toronto and hamilton are a combined 4-11), but that has more to do with the fact that the East is just plain lousy. Western teams are now 18-6 against the East. It doesn’t matter where they play.

 

2. The Calgary defence is the only thing that will keep the Stampeders out of the Grey Cup. It’s not that the Calgary defence is awful. The Stamps have allowed only 352 points in 14 games. It’s just that when they need it, they don’t get it. The Stamps have five losses. The defence collapsed in the final minute in a 32-28 loss to Winnipeg (and, don’t forget, the Bombers had Ryan Dinwiddie at quarterback), it collapsed late in a 34-31 loss in Edmonton and gave up 37 at home in another loss to Edmonton. In five losses, the Stampders have given up 162 points. In nine wins, only 190. There is a lesson in all that. 

 

3. The Bombers still aren’t a lock — although, they should be. Winnipeg added Jason Armstead, Kai Ellis, Zeke Moreno and Joe Smith and should be better. For three weeks, they were, with wins over 3-11 Hamilton and 4-10 Toronto on the road and 7-5 Edmonton at home. But on Friday night, the Bombers did the things they did when the team was 2-8: they didn’t run the ball enough, they were awful on special teams, they committed a couple of turnovers that led to 14 points and their kicking game — once again — was dreadful. Winnipeg should have second place in the Least Division locked up by now, but with games against Toronto and Hamilton at home and Calgary and Montreal on the road, anything can happen.

 

4. Saskatchewan isn’t going to roll over. Just when we thought the banged-up Roughriders were about to go down for a third and final time, they get a sensational effort from Michael Bishop and 128 yards receiving from Weston Dressler and beat Calgary 37-34. The Riders are 9-5, still tied for first and still in a legitimate race for first place. 

 

5. The B.C. Lions just might be the surprise of the West. They don’t do much of anything, at least not anything remarkable, (although DE Cameron Wake is pretty impressive) and yet, the Lions find ways to win. Friday night, they went into Toronto and should have blown the wonky Argos away. Instead, they were lucky to beat a team that hasn’t won since Week 10 — and hasn’t won at all for Don Matthews. But in B.C.’s case, the emphasis should be on the word “win.” They found a way and that’s what makes a champion (remember the 1988 Blue Bombers and the 2001 Calgary Stampeders and the 2007 Saskatchewan Roughriders?). There is a lot to be said for a team that can win a close game on the road. Of their nine wins this season, the Lions have won five games, each by less than a converted touchdown. That’s a team that will be tough in the playoffs.