There has to be a reason why I’ve been so bad this season. While my good friend Dr. Football seems to have the NFL figured out, I just don’t get it. I don’t get the horrendous officiating, I don’t get the visually impaired officials watching replay, I don’t understand coaches who would rather lose by three points than win by three touchdowns.
I also didn’t expect this: According to the NFL office in New York, 51 of 90 (56.7 percent) games this season have been decided by eight points or fewer, the second highest percentage through Week 6 since the adoption of the two-point conversion in 1994.
The NFL says that if the trend continues this weekend, “the 2010 season could feature the highest percentage of games decided by eight points or fewer through Week 7 since 1994.” In 1999, 59.0 percent of games were decided by eight-or-fewer points, the most in that time span.
So that’s it, right? All the games are so close, they’re almost impossible to call.
Probably isn’t true, but while Doc Football rips it up, I’m dropping so far behind, the Doc can’t even see me in his rear view mirror. I need an excuse. This is embarrassing.
So embarrassing, in fact, that I’ll let the Doc write this week’s screed and I’ll just drop in my picks… for what that’s worth.
Here’s a very close look at Week 7 courtesy of Dr. Football:
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-2) Line: Falcons by 3.5
This will be the second time this year Matt Ryan is coming off a mediocre performance in an outdoor game and hosting a team in the Georgia Dome. Ryan is a different quarterback at home; throughout his career as a host, he’s completed 63.4 percent of his passes with 21 touchdowns and just 11 interceptions. On the road, his completion percentage (57.5) and touchdown-interception ratio (26-18) are far worse. Ryan should have a pretty big game this week. The Bengals are sixth against the pass, but just allowed 280 passing yards to Josh Freeman. Cincinnati also really struggles to put any sort of pressure on the quarterback, and now they’ll be without Antwan Odom, who was just suspended for four games. Carson Palmer is awful. Even with all of his weapons, Palmer has really struggled this year. Sure, Atlanta can’t stop the pass at all, but neither can the Buccaneers, and Palmer threw for just 209 yards on 36 attempts with a pick-six two weeks ago. It’s a shame, but all of those injuries have really sapped him of his arm strength. I fully expect the Falcons to rebound. They’re 11-3 against the spread as hosts with Ryan under center, and under Mike Smith, they’re 10-2 versus the number after a straight-up loss.
Dr. Football: FALCONS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: FALCONS TO WIN AND COVER.
Washington Redskins (3-3) at Chicago Bears (4-2) Line: Bears by 3.
The Bears’ pass protection schemes have been the subject of ridicule this week. The Seahawks had multiple defenders in Chicago’s backfield last week, and it’s amazing that the Bears surrendered only six sacks. The Redskins have 13 sacks on the year, though nine of them have come in two games. I’m sure they’ll get a bunch this Sunday. Mike Martz is a moron who doesn’t care about protecting his quarterback. He’ll continue to have Jay Cutler take seven-step drops with no one to help ease the pass rush. I don’t know why Martz doesn’t revert back to what he did in the Cowboys game, when he had Cutler fire the ball quickly to receivers running short routes to neutralize Dallas’ blitzes. This game should be a defensive struggle. I like the Bears to prevail; the Redskins just played an emotional game at home against the Colts on Sunday night. Despite their best effort, they came up short. I don’t think Washington will be able to bring 100 percent against a Chicago squad looking to redeem itself.
Dr. Football: BEARS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: BEARS TO WIN AND COVER.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Tennessee Titans (4-2) Line: No Line
Based on the Monday night matchup, the Titans appear to provide a tough challenge for Eagles QB Kevin Kolb, but the Jaguars really made Tennessee’s secondary look a lot better than it really is. Prior to the Jacksonville game, the Titans had surrendered 1,133 passing yards in their previous three contests. Kolb should continue to play well, even without DeSean Jackson. The Eagles were pretty poor against the rush earlier in the year, but they’ve really done a great job shoring up that aspect of their defense. They’ve limited the 49ers (Frank Gore) and Falcons (Michael Turner) to just 120 rushing yards on 37 carries the past two weeks. Keeping Tennessee’s ground game in check is a different animal though because Vince Young is a running threat himself. Young suffered a knee sprain on Monday night, but is expected to play. The Eagles appear to have the better team, but this seems like an Andy Reid stink bomb. Reid has never fared well before the bye or against AFC opponents. Jeff Fisher, meanwhile, dominates non-conference foes with an incredible 21-6 spread record versus the NFC.
Dr. Football: TITANS TO WIN.
The Coach: TITANS TO WIN.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2) Line: No Line
I really hate this Jacksonville team. Jack Del Rio is a lazy coach who can’t get his team fired up, and does stupid things like call timeout down 20 with two minutes left. David Garrard, meanwhile, is a fat, lethargic wuss who can’t take a hit. Garrard was knocked out of the game with what the team called a “concussion,” even though he was laughing and smiling on the bench despite the fact that his team was getting blown out. Jacksonville’s secondary is a joke. I’d normally doubt that someone as inept as Matt Cassel could take advantage of it, but Kerry Collins looked like a Pro Bowler throwing against that defensive backfield on Monday night. (There is no line on this game, but I’m going to assume that it’s around -7 no matter who the quarterback is.)
Dr. Football: CHIEFS TO WIN.
The Coach: CHIEFS TO WIN.
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (3-2) Line: Steelers by 3.
The rust was there for Ben Roethlisberger. He made some great plays last week and allowed the Steelers to be more aggressive on offense, but he also made a few poor throws, including a horrible interception to Joe Haden that set up a Browns field goal. Roethlisberger has a tougher test this Sunday. Miami’s secondary is a lot better than Cleveland’s. Not that the Dolphins are great in the defensive backfield or anything; statistically they’re mediocre, but that’s a lot better than the Browns, are 29th against the pass. Big Ben’s major challenge will be avoiding a Miami pass rush that has eight sacks in its last two games. Cameron Wake has really established himself as a dominant rush linebacker, and as you may know, Pittsburgh’s offensive line isn’t the greatest front in the NFL. All that being said, I smell upset here… based on the spread, everyone seemingly expects the Steelers’ defense to dominate Miami’s offense. If you agree with that, keep in mind that Colt McCoy, making his first start, threw for 281 yards on 23-of-33 passing on Sunday.
Dr. Football: DOLPHINS TO WIN.
The Coach: STEELERS TO WIN AND COVER.
Cleveland Browns (1-5) at New Orleans Saints (4-2) Line: Saints by 13.5.
Despite their blowout victory over Tampa Bay, the Saints are still having major problems in the red zone. They reached the red area three times last week (excluding a late visit at the end of the game), and they just mustered one touchdown and a field goal. However, like last week, New Orleans could easily hit a few long bombs to put the game out of hand. The Browns are 29th against the pass, allowing 8.1 yards per attempt. I was really impressed with Browns QB Colt McCoy last week. He stood in the pocket amid a fierce pass rush, and did more than just dump off passes to Peyton Hillis. It’s only one game and I need to see a lot more, but the McCoy era looks promising in Cleveland.
Dr. Football: SAINTS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER.
The Coach: SAINTS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER
St. Louis Rams (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) Line: Buccaneers by 2.5.
Sam Bradford continues to amaze, he really clicked last week with undrafted free agent Danario Alexander. Alexander is actually really physically gifted, but wasn’t selected in the 2010 NFL Draft because of major knee issues. But as long as Alexander’s healthy, he and Bradford should be able to post solid numbers. Especially this week. The Buccaneers really miss safety Tanard Jackson. They’re now 23rd against the pass and will continue to see that ranking drop. I really expect Bradford to have a big game. Of course, Bradford may not have to do much because Tampa is dead last against the run. The Buccaneers made Chris Ivory look like the second coming of Deuce McAllister last week, so Steven Jackson could have the breakout performance his fantasy owners have been waiting for. The Buccaneers, conversely, can’t run the football no matter whom they’re going up against. Cadillac Williams is essentially a corpse, and I just don’t understand why Raheem Morris isn’t using LeGarrette Blount.
Dr. Football: RAMS TO WIN.
The Coach: BUCCANEERS TO WIN AND COVER
San Francisco 49ers (1-5) at Carolina Panthers (0-5) Line: 49ers by 3.
The 49ers finally got into the win column last week. But it really was in spite of Alex Smith. Smith was terrible; he began the game 2-of-11, and continuously missed wide-open receivers downfield with Oakland’s safeties blowing assignments all afternoon. The Panthers will offer Smith similar opportunities. They’re third against the pass, and they offer zero pass rush (seven sacks in five games), so Smith won’t have any sort of excuse for sucking this week. The 49ers will have to establish Frank Gore to keep Smith from screwing up yet again. Fortunately for them, the Panthers have allowed at least 112 rushing yards to four opponents this season, including 209 to Chicago in Week 5. “Carolina offense” is an oxymoron this year. The quarterbacks are brutal. There is no running game to speak of because Jeff Otah has been out. Steve Smith is still hurt. The offensive line can’t pass protect.
Dr. Football: 49ERS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: PANTHERS TO WIN AND COVER
Buffalo Bills (0-5) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2) Line: Ravens by 13.
The Ravens need to trust Joe Flacco more. Flacco played a great game at New England, but Baltimore’s coaching staff became too conservative with a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. This will be a great opportunity for John Harbaugh and Cam Cameron to let Flacco air the ball out. The Bills are pathetic all around, ranking 27th against the pass even though they’ve gone up against some middle-level and pedestrian quarterbacks like Chad Henne, Mark Sanchez and David Garrard. Keeping it on the ground will obviously work for Baltimore as well; the Bills are also 27th versus the run.
Dr. Football: RAVENS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: RAVENS TO WIN AND COVER
Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2) Line: Seahawks by 5.5.
For the first time all year Sunday, Matt Hasselbeck didn’t throw an interception. Could this be a trend that continues? It’s very possible. Left tackle Russell Okung, taken No. 6 overall in the 2010 NFL Draft, is finally healthy again and did a great job against the Bears. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Hasselbeck was finally error-free with his elite blind-side protector in the line up. The Cardinals won’t offer much resistance. They have just eight sacks in five games. With a clean pocket, Hasselbeck can torch a secondary that has surrendered at least 225 yards to each opponent it has battled this year. Seattle will also have success using its new toy. Marshawn Lynch will have a solid performance running through the league’s 25th-ranked ground defense.
Dr. Football: SEAHAWKS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: SEAHAWKS TO WIN AND COVER
New England Patriots (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (2-4) Line: Chargers by 3
This goes without saying, but the Chargers are a mess right now. No. 1 receiver Malcom Floyd is out for this game. Kicker Nate Kaeding will also miss this contest. Meanwhile, Antonio Gates is questionable to play. Even if Gates suits up, he may not be 100 percent. If so, he could actually hurt San Diego more than help them, a la Andre Johnson in Week 5. The Patriots actually rank 28th against the pass; they’ve surrendered at least 220 passing yards to every opponent this year, including Ryan Fitzpatrick and Carson Palmer. Philip Rivers is one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, but he can’t do it alone. If all New England’s secondary has to worry about is a hobbled Gates and Legedu Naanee, Patrick Crayton and Buster Davis, the Patriots will be fine.
Dr. Football: PATRIOTS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: PATRIOTS TO WIN AND COVER
Oakland Raiders (2-4) at Denver Broncos (2-4) Line: No Line
Bruce Gradkowski has an injured shoulder. Jason Campbell believes he tore the meniscus in his knee. So, who does that leave? Kyle Boller! It appears as though Boller will start this game. That’s the bad news. The good news is that Darren McFadden may play. Not that the Raiders need him to run the ball against Denver’s 22nd-ranked rush defense, but McFadden would provide an added element to Oakland’s aerial “attack” as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. There is no line on this game, but if Boller starts as expected, I can’t imagine it being any less than Broncos -10. Denver just endured an emotional loss to the Jets. McDaniels had everything going, from Demaryius Thomas catching touchdowns to Tim Tebow running the Wild Horses. The Broncos came up short, and now have to battle this “crappy” Oakland team that just lost to winless San Francisco. I don’t know where the motivation is going to come from.
Dr. Football: BRONCOS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER.
The Coach: BRONCOS TO WIN AND COVER
SUNDAY NIGHT
Minnesota Vikings (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-3) Line: Packers by 2.5.
The Packers really struggled against the run last week, surrendering 144 yards on 36 carries, including some crucial big-gainers in overtime. This sets up nicely for Adrian Peterson, right? Not really. The Packers get Ryan Pickett and Clay Matthews back from injury. Matthews, aside from being the league’s sack leader, is also very good in run support. Despite last week’s performance, Green Bay is still fifth against the rush, and should be able to contain Peterson just as the Cowboys did last week. This of course, will make life very difficult for Brett Favre. Favre really got knocked around last week by Dallas, and will have to endure more of the same with Matthews breathing down his neck. The Packers will be out for blood because this is their first opportunity to beat Brett Favre after he embarrassed them twice last year. But it’s not like the Vikings are just going to roll over; dropping to 2-4 would put them in a big hole.
Dr. Football: VIKINGS TO WIN.
The Coach: PACKERS TO WIN AND COVER.
MONDAY NIGHT
New York Giants (4-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-4) Line: Cowboys by 3
The Giants boast a pretty strong defense. They have 21 sacks on the year, which is not good news for Romo because he’s two weeks removed from taking six sacks, and left guard Kyle Kosier is out. New York is also fourth versus the rush, so Jones and Marion Barber won’t get much on the ground. Like the Giants, the Cowboys bring a ton of pressure. They have 10 sacks in their previous three games. This, however, hasn’t helped their secondary, which is 22nd against the pass – a ranking that doesn’t even take into account all of Mike Jenkins’ pass interference yardage. After allowing four sacks in Week 2, New York’s offensive front has done a great job of keeping Eli Manning’s pocket clean; Manning has taken just six sacks in the past four games despite playing fierce defenses like Chicago and Tennessee. The Cowboys, at the very least, should have some success containing the impressive Ahmad Bradshaw; they just limited Adrian Peterson to just 77 yards on 25 carries. This is a tough on to call, but the Giants have won the 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Dr. Football: GIANTS TO WIN.
The Coach: COWBOYS TO WIN AND COVER
If you’re in a survivor pool, your best bets are Saints and the Ravens.
The Doc was 10-4 last week and is 49-41 on the season, and 9-5 against the spread and is 46-44 YTD. The Coach was 8-6 last week and 4-8-2 against the spread. For the season, The Coach is 47-43 straight up and 33-52-5 against the spread.
