Have to admit, a lot of things happened this week around the NFL that I did not expect.
I didn’t expect the Vikings to score only 10 points, I certainly didn’t expect the Buccaneers to whip the Panthers (and see Matt Moores lose his job), I didn’t expect the Lions to score 32 points against Philly with Sean Hill at quarterback, I didn’t expect Chicago to drill Dallas at the Jerry Jones Taj Mahal, I didn’t expect Kansas City to be 2-0 while the Vikings and Niners are 0-2, I didn’t expect Cincinnati to win 15-10 over Baltimore without scoring a touchdown and I didn’t expect Denver to absolutely hammer Seattle.
I had such a bad week against the line last Sunday and Monday that I’m embarrassed to admit it — 4-11-1. OK, I admitted it. Hope you’re happy, because I’m not and I’m a lot poorer, too.
But hey, it’s only football and it’s not much fun without a handful of Sport Select tickets to use as coasters for the Coke Zero.
So here we go, jumping with both feet. It’s Week 4 in the NFL and Dr. Football and I are going bungee jumping without a cord…
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
The Chiefs should not be 2-0. Matt Cassel, who has completed just 52 percent of his passes in two weeks is atrocious and isn’t nearly good enough to keep defences honest. The 49ers will concentrate on stopping Kansas City’s ground attack, forcing Cassel to beat them. Despite being 0-2, the 49ers are the better team.
Dr. Football: 49ers TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: CHIEFS TO WIN.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
Excluding Adrian Peterson, things are just not looking good for Minnesota’s offense. Brett Favre is finally playing his age, but there is a reason for that: Chester Taylor is in Chicago; Sidney Rice is out; Percy Harvin has been playing with injuries and migraines; and the offensive line stinks. Fortunately, the Lions are coming to town. Peterson will have a huge game, which will set up play-action and short-yardage opportunities for ‘Ol Brett. As if he’ll need them. Detroit’s secondary is an abomination — currently ranked 31st in that department — allowing 9.5 yards per pass attempt. It seems as though Harvin will be able to play, which is great news for the 0-2 Vikings. Minnesota is simply desperate for a win. If they lose this game, they’re guaranteed to be three back of either Green Bay or Chicago.
Dr. Football: VIKINGS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: VIKINGS TO WIN AND COVER.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-14)
As we all saw on Sunday, New England’s defence isn’t very good. They were being pushed around by the Jets’ offensive line, as LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene ripped off solid gains at will. The difference here though is that Buffalo’s front won’t be able to duplicate what New York’s did. Thus, Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will be stuck in third-and-long situations all afternoon, which is never a good thing. He’s horrible. Lucky for New England as the Bills may not score a point. There are three things that Tom Brady hates: barbers, women who aren’t supermodels and the feeling of losing a football game. Bills will go the 0-3, Pats will be 2-1 when this one’s over and The Coach will take a double-digit favorite against the spread.
Dr. Football: PATRIOTS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: PATRIOTS TO WIN AND COVER.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4)
I expect the Falcons (1-1) to put up a ton of points. Matt Ryan ordinarily is pretty average on the road, but has understandably been pretty comfortable in New Orleans’ dome. In two games at the Superdome, Ryan is 43-of-75 for 604 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions (one pick was tipped). Those stats pretty much rival what he’s done at home in his young career. The Saints (2-0) haven’t been very good against the pass this year – they rank 26th in that department despite playing a 40-year-old Brett Favre and the 49ers Alex Smith – so keeping Atlanta out of the end zone will prove to be difficult, especially with Michael Turner as a threat out of the backfield.
Dr. Football: FALCONS TO WIN.
The Coach: SAINTS TO WIN AND COVER.
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-3)
The Giants (1-1) could be really flat after losing to the Colts. That game was really hyped up, so we doubt their energy level will be anywhere close to 100 percent against a seemingly inferior Tennessee (1-1) squad. The Titans had a sloppy loss and should be more focused this Sunday.
Dr. Football: TITANS TO WIN.
The Coach: GIANTS TO WIN AND COVER.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
This is weird – this is the third consecutive year that the Browns (0-2) are traveling to Baltimore for a Week 3 matchup. The Ravens slaughtered Cleveland in the previous two instances, 28-10 and 34-3. But that’s not why we like the 1-1 Ravens. Quite simply, they’re a tough, disciplined football team that takes care of business. Under John Harbaugh, they’re 9-1 against the spread against teams with losing records and that ain’t gonna change Sunday.
Dr. Football: RAVENS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: RAVENS TO WIN AND COVER.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3)
This is desperation mode for the Cowboys. Not only that; they’d like to get revenge on the Texans for embarrassing them on national TV in the preseason. This is a must-win game for them. If they’re 0-3 going into their bye, they risk falling two games behind everyone in the NFC East (the Eagles, Redskins and Giants are all favoured this week). The Cowboys won’t be able to run the ball against the Texans (or anyone) but they’ll definitely have success moving the chains aerially. Houston’s secondary hasn’t been able to stop anyone, ranking 30th versus the pass (9.0 YPA). Their cornerbacks are really struggling, and Dr. Football expects Tony Romo to have a big day. The Coach believes Romo will get pressured, panic and go fetal.
Dr. Football: COWBOYS TO WIN.
The Coach: TEXANS TO WIN AND COVER.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
The Steelers already salvaged two wins without Big Ben, which had to be their goal. Thus, Dr. Football doesn’t think they’ll have much urgency in Tampa. They certainly won’t have the same fire they played with against the Falcons or Titans, given that they’re favoured for the first time. This is more of a statement game for the Buccaneers. This is their chance to prove that they’re for real. They’re 2-0, but haven’t beaten a team that has a win yet. Defeating the undefeated Steelers would show everyone that they are a team that needs to be taken seriously.
Dr. Football: BUCCANEERS TO WIN.
The Coach: BUCCANEERS TO WIN.
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (+3.5)
While the 1-1 Bengals’ defence played out of its mind against the Ravens, the offense left much to be desired. Carson Palmer, in particular, was woeful. He was 16-of-35 for 167 yards last week, and that doesn’t tell the whole story. He missed a wide-open Chad Ochocinco in the end zone and had two routine interceptions dropped by Baltimore defenders. Sure, Carolina’s defence offers less of a challenge, but Palmer stinks right now and cannot move the chains consistently. The 0-2 Panthers just can’t win. QB Jimmy Clausen faces a ridiculously tough first opponent in the Bengals. Cincinnati put the heat on Joe Flacco last week and forced him into four interceptions. The Panthers are tied for second with seven sacks allowed this season, so that doesn’t bode well for Clausen.
Dr. Football: BENGALS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER.
The Coach: BENGALS TO WIN AND COVER.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
The Eagles (1-1) are the superior team, and we don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t be completely focused for this game. They generally play well in the latter half of back-to-back road swings, and they shouldn’t have much of a problem dispatching this miserable Jaguars (1-1) squad. Mike Vick is a stud.
Dr. Football: EAGLES TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: EAGLES TO WIN AND COVER.
Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (+4)
Remember when the Redskins (1-1) couldn’t score an offensive touchdown in the opener against the Cowboys? That seems like so long ago. Donovan McNabb finally got into a groove on Sunday, torching the Texans for 426 yards. The Rams (0-2) quite simply don’t stand a chance. Sam Bradford has done a great job holding his own in his rookie season, especially when considering that aside from Steven Jackson, he doesn’t have a viable weapon to work with. Jackson will find it difficult to run on Washington. The Redskins limited Arian Foster and Houston’s offense to just 83 rushing yards on 22 carries last week.
Dr. Football: REDSKINS TO WIN AND COVER
The Coach: REDSKINS TO WIN AND COVER.
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (+5.5)
Dr. Football just loves how everyone thought the Colts (1-1) were done after they lost in Week 1. “Yeah, well I think they’re going to be OK,” says the good Doctor. There are only a handful of defences in the league that can slow Peyton Manning down, even just a bit. The Broncos (1-1) don’t have one of them. They have just two sacks on the year and are consequently 22nd versus the pass (7.2 YPA). Their run defence is even worse, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Unless the Colts make sloppy mistakes – which seldom happens – they’ll be able to move up and down the field with ease at Denver.
Dr. Football: COLTS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: COLTS TO WIN AND COVER.
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4)
Bruce Gradkowski will get the start for the 1-1 Raiders; he’s not a physically gifted quarterback, but he makes smart and accurate throws, and can scramble out of the pocket. He’s like a manly version of Jeff Garcia. Not that there’s anything wrong with not being manly. The Cardinals (1-1) are not that good, but they are a veteran team. After losing 41-7, ol Doc Football imagines that they’ll be playing for pride in their home opener.
Dr. Football: CARDINALS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: CARDINALS TO WIN AND COVER.
San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (+5.5)
Seattle’s (1-1) Matt Hasselbeck tossed three interceptions last week, giving him 14 picks in his last six games dating back to 2009. The Chargers (1-1) intercepted Jacksonville’s David Garrard four times on Sunday, so this seems like a recipe for disaster.
Dr. Football: CHARGERS TO WIN BUT NOT COVER.
The Coach: CHARGERS TO WIN AND COVER.
SUNDAY NIGHT
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
The Dolphins are 2-0, and while Chad Henne hasn’t made any mistakes, you can’t really say that his team is undefeated because of him. Henne hasn’t been asked to do much the past two weeks. That’ll need to change if Miami wants to beat the Jets (1-1) . Dr. Football still thinks Mark Sanchez is a bum.
Dr. Football: DOLPHINS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: DOLPHINS TO WIN AND COVER.
MONDAY NIGHT
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+3)
The emotional aspect of this game says Chicago (2-0) will win. Soldier Field will be going nuts on Monday night. Like the Chiefs in Week 1, the Bears will feed off the crowd. And don’t forget what happened when the Vikings visited the Bears on a Monday night late last year. Having said that, I’m taking the Packers (2-0). If they want to make it to the Super Bowl this year they will find some way to overcome a raucous Soldier Field crowd.
Dr. Football: PACKERS TO WIN AND COVER.
The Coach: PACKERS TO WIN AND COVER.
If you’re in a survivor pool and you took our advice last week, you didn’t waste Green Bay and got a big win from Atlanta. This week, if you want to hold on New England (and their home gift against Buffalo) and hold on Baltimore (and that bigger gift from Cleveland), take a shot at Houston to beat Dallas or Minnesota to beat Detroit. I’m taking Houston this week.
The Doc is 15-17 this year, and 16-16 vs. the spread. The Coach is 17-15 straight up and a smelly 11-17-3 against the spread.