November 11, 2009
Week 10 in the NFL. We're Going South and Nobody is Hotter than Dr. Sports.
MINNEAPOLIS — We're south of the border this weekend as the 7-1 Minnesota Vikings take on the 1-7 Detroit Lions in what could be called a gimme.
We're going down because it's Week 1 of the end of the season for the rest of the teams in the NFC North. The Vikings play the Lions at home this week, get Seattle next week and then play the Bears at the Dome on Nov. 29. With three home wins, the Vikings will be 10-1 by the end of the month and they'll have first place in the North wrapped up.
Yesterday, on the SIRIUS-XM radio program Movin' the Chains, Vikings head coach Brad Childress said that this Vikings team is one of his favourites of all time.
"This is a great group of guys, not without its challenges," Childress said. " "They enjoy each other, and they compete like crazy with each other. This is a (heck) of a group of guys."
Once again, to no one's surprise, Childress He again applauded not only the level of play, but the remarkable professionalism of veteran quarterback Brett Favre. Interestingly, Favre went deer hunting during the recent Vikings bye week.
"You kind of marvel at a guy who is 40 throwing to a guy who is 21," said Childress, referring to Favre's tremendous feel for rookie receiver Percy Harvin. "This is a long, arduous grind, but it's all been pretty good so far."
The Vikings have a chance to lock up the division this month. Wonder where all those experts went who said Favre was done? Wonder where all those experts went who said Jay Cutler was the answer in Chicago? Wonder where all those experts went claimed Aaron Rodgers is football's next great quarterback? Sometimes you get the sense that the more you read a newspaper, the dumber you get.
Let's take a closer look at Week 10. The Texans and Giants get the byes. Nobody in the world of "winning" NFL selections is even close to Dr,. Sports. He went 12-1 last week.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Chicago Bears 4-4 at San Francisco 49ers 3-5 (-2.5)
These teams are matched pretty evenly. However, the 49ers have two major advantages in this game: First, the Bears have to travel to the West Coast on a very short work week. Second, the Niners are the home team in a week night game and Thursday night hosts are 6-3 against the spread the past two seasons. The crowd is going to be pumped up and the 49ers will feed off of that emotion.
Dr. Sports: 49ers to win and cover.
The Coach: 49ers to win and cover.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON
Atlanta Falcons 5-3 at Carolina Panthers 3-5 (+1.5)
The Falcons are 1-3 on the road as opposed to 4-0 at home. This is a divisional game against a Panthers team with a great ground game that has underachieved all season.
Dr. Sports: Panthers to win.
The Coach: Panthers to win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-7 at Miami Dolphins 3-5 (-9.5)
The Dolphins brought everything to the table last week against the Patriots and even revealed a new wrinkle in the Wildcat. However, they came up short, meaning at 3-5, their season is all but over. They'll be flat again this week. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, could be playing with more confidence and energy with an impressive rookie quarterback.
Dr. Sports: Dolphins to win, but not cover.
The Coach: Dolphins to win and cover.
Detroit Lions 1-7 at Minnesota 7-1 (-16.5)
Oh boy…this will be ugly. The problem here is that this spread is way too large, especially for a divisional game. If the Vikings have a careless turnover or two, they'll have difficulty covering 17 points. And just looking at the history of this rivalry, only one game in the past 11 years has been decided by 17 points or more. In fact, the 7-1 Vikings have just one victory greater than 14 points all season.
Dr. Sports: Vikings to win but not cover.
The Coach: Vikings to win and cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-4 at N.Y. Jets 4-4 (-6.5)
If you exclude a 38-0 victory over Oakland, the Jets haven't won or covered a game since Sept. 27. Given how much the team is favoured by, it just seems to me that the Jets are living off the reputation they established when they were 3-0. All but one of their opponents since that time currently has a losing record, yet they are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in that span.
Dr. Sports: Jets to win, but not cover.
The Coach: Jets to win and cover.
Cincinnati Bengals 6-2 at Pittsburgh Steelers 6-2 (-6.5)
The Game of the Week. Bengals are the Rodney Dangerfield of football; they get no respect. Last week despite already having beaten the Ravens AND being at home they were the underdog. They have to feel disrespected by this ridiculous line and the fact they have beat the Steelers already. That all being said, the Steelers are the better squad and they're at home.
Dr. Sports: Steelers to win but not cover.
The Coach: Steelers to win and cover.
New Orleans Saints 8-0 at St. Louis Rams 1-7 (+13.5)
The Rams have faced three teams with winning records this year. They've been outscored by those three teams (Vikings, 49ers and Colts) by a 115-16 margin. How pathetic is that? This is almost a statement game for the Saints after three mediocre outings.
Dr. Sports: Saints to win and cover.
The Coach: Saints to win and cover.
Buffalo Bills 3-5 at Tennessee Titans 2-6 (-6.5)
The Titans are on a roll with Vince Young at quarterback and the public finally believes in them. That has forced Vegas to create an inflated line. A week ago, the Titans would have been -3.
Dr. Sports: Titans will win but not cover.
The Coach: Titans will win and cover.
Denver Broncos 6-2 at Washington Redskins 2-6 (+3.5)
We like the Broncos in this one for one reason: The freakin' Redskins are horrible.
Dr. Sports: Broncos to win but not cover.
The Coach: Broncos to win and cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 1-7 at Oakland Raiders 2-6 (-1.5)
The Raiders have had two weeks to prepare and have home field advantage. As bad as they are, the Raiders won the week two match-up 13-10.
Dr. Sports: Raiders to win and cover.
The Coach: Raiders to win and cover.
Seattle Seahawks 3-5 at Arizona Cardinals 5-3 (-8.5)
The Cardinals are 4-0 on the road, yet they are 1-3 at home. Go figure. The Seahawks are 0-3 on the road and are in a must win game.
Dr. Sports: Cardinals to win but not cover.
The Coach: Cardinals to win and cover.
Dallas Cowboys 6-2 at Green Bay Packers 4-4 (+2.5)
Tony Romo is on fire. Ever since Miles Austin-Jones stepped in as the No. 1 receiver, Romo has tossed 11 touchdowns and a pick. In that four-game span, Romo has averaged 306 yards per contest on an amazing 9.2 Yards Per Attempt. There isn't a quarterback in this league who is playing better right now. The Packers? Brett Favre not only beat them, he has cast a spell on them and their season is over.
Dr. Sports: Cowboys to win and cover
The Coach: Cowboys to win and cover
Philadelphia Eagles 5-3 at San Diego Chargers 5-3 (-2.5)
The last west coast trip for the Eagles resulted in a 13-9 loss to the Oakland Raiders. Cross country trips can be tiresome and hard on NFL teams. The San Diego Chargers have played extremely good football the past few weeks (they flew cross-country and beat the Giants 21-20), and we expect them to take advantage of the home field situation.
Dr. Sports: Chargers to win and cover.
The Coach: Chargers to win and cover.
SUNDAY NIGHT
New England Patriots 6-2 at Indianapolis Colts 8-0 (-2.5)
How many times has this been the game of the week this decade? The New England Patriots come into Indianapolis as the Colts have lost Marlin Jackson, Bob Sanders, and Kelvin Hayden. The Colts defence is vulnerable and their rushing offense is among the league's worst. The Patriots should hand the Colts their first loss of the season, leaving the Saints as the league's only undefeated team.
Dr. Sports: New England to win.
The Coach: New England to win.
MONDAY NIGHT
Baltimore Ravens 4-4 at Cleveland Browns 1-7 (+10.5)
How 'bout this stat? If every pass a quarterback attempts, falls to the ground incomplete — that’s every single pass — his passer rating is a dreadful 39.6. Cleveland Browns quarterback Derek Anderson's passer rating is 36.2. No wonder Brady Quinn will get the start this week against Baltimore. The Ravens should need to score no more than 20 points to cover this spread.
Dr. Sports: Ravens to win and cover.
The Coach: Ravens to win and cover.
The Doc is now 83-46 on the season and 69-60 against the spread. The Coach is 76-53 straight up and 65-64 against the spread.
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